-
Sources of Projected Employment Data
State short-term occupational projections are developed in the labor market
information sections of each State Employment Security Agency.
-
Projection Period
The projection period is 2003-2005 for all States. However, states could choose
different quarters within the base and projected year, e.g., 2003:Q2 - 2005:Q2 or
2003:Q4 - 2005:Q4.
-
Occupational Data
Each State Employment Security Agency in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor
Statistics uses the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey to gather
occupational employment data. These OES data are the basis for the occupational data used
in the projections. The data collected reflect the Standard Occupational Classification
(SOC). Many occupations are not identified separately in the SOC and are included in
aggregate categories not shown on this site.
Employment may not be sufficient to
warrant the development of occupational projections in every occupation in each State, or
the data may be confidential. Occupations for which projections are not available are
indicated with an (NA) for 'not available.'
For most States, 2003 and 2005 employment
are rounded to the nearest 10. Employment less than 50 is shown as (NA). Numerical
employment change and average annual openings are rounded to the nearest 10. Numbers with
an absolute value of less than 10 are identified with an (NA). If the numerical
employment change is shown as (NA), the percent employment change is also shown as (NA).
Data for New Jersey, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania use a format requested by those
States.
Data for States currently not included will be added as soon as they become available.
-
Numeric Employment Change
Numeric employment change is the difference in the number of jobs between the
base and projected years. A positive number means employment is growing due to the
creation of new jobs. A negative number indicates employment is declining in
the occupation.
Numeric change is important to consider along with percent change, because both
types of change are affected by the size of employment in an occupation. Occupations
with a large base of numeric employment may be creating large numbers of new jobs yet
have a small percent change. Occupations with a small base of numeric employment may
be creating a small number of new jobs yet have a large percent change.
-
Percent Employment Change
Percent employment change indicates how fast employment is expected to increase
or decrease during the projection period. The larger the positive percent change, the
faster employment is growing. A large positive percent change is generally an indicator
of favorable employment prospects. Likewise, the larger the negative percent change,
the faster employment is declining, and the more unfavorable the employment prospects.
-
Average Annual Openings
Average annual openings are the sum of average annual new jobs and replacements.
Average annual new jobs are the numeric change in employment over the projection
period divided by the number of years in the projection period. Replacements are an
estimate of the number of jobs that will arise from the need to replace workers who will
die, retire, or otherwise permanently leave the occupation. Occupations with declining
employment will have average annual openings equal to replacement needs. Average
annual openings are presented because job openings arise from both newly created jobs
and the need to replace workers who permanently leave their jobs.
-
How Often are the Projections Updated?
Short-term projections are updated on an annual basis. Employment projections
are developed by each state and therefore are subject to work schedules and
other related constraints of each state. Once a sufficient number of states
have completed their next round of projections, updates will be made to this site.