About the Long-Term Projections Numbers

  • Sources of Projected Employment Data

    National projections are developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. State projections are developed in the labor market information sections of each State Employment Security Agency.


  • Projection Period

    The projection period is 2006-2016 for all States.


  • Occupational Data

    Each State Employment Security Agency in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey to gather occupational employment data. These OES data are the basis for the occupational data used in the projections. The data collected reflect the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Many occupations are not identified separately in the SOC and are included in aggregate categories not shown on this site.

    Employment may not be sufficient to warrant the development of occupational projections in every occupation in each State, or the data may be confidential. Occupations for which projections are not available are indicated with an (NA) for 'not available.'

    For most States, 2006 and 2016 employment are rounded to the nearest 10. Employment less than 50 is shown as (NA). Numerical employment change and average annual openings are rounded to the nearest 10. Numbers with an absolute value of less than 10 are identified with an (NA). If the numerical employment change is shown as (NA), the percent employment change is also shown as (NA).

    Data for New Jersey, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania use a format requested by those States.

    Louisiana lost a very high number of jobs within a very short period of time due to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The net change in covered employment from August to December 2005 showed a loss of 144,850 workers in the region just affected by Hurricane Katrina. These projections were prepared with two scenarios in mind: the need for immediate reconstruction trades people for repair and recovery projected through 2009, followed by a leveling off as reconstruction jobs end and the replacement economy picks up momentum through 2014. In light of that projections for Louisiana are not strictly comparable to those for other states.

    Data for States currently not included will be added as soon as they become available.


  • Numeric Employment Change, 2006-2016

    Numeric employment change is the difference in the number of jobs between the base and projected years. A positive number means employment is growing due to the creation of new jobs. A negative number indicates employment is declining in the occupation.

    Numeric change is important to consider along with percent change, because both types of change are affected by the size of employment in an occupation. Occupations with a large base of numeric employment may be creating large numbers of new jobs yet have a small percent change. Occupations with a small base of numeric employment may be creating a small number of new jobs yet have a large percent change.


  • Percent Employment Change, 2006-2016

    Percent employment change indicates how fast employment is expected to increase or decrease during the projection period. The larger the positive percent change, the faster employment is growing. A large positive percent change is generally an indicator of favorable employment prospects. Likewise, the larger the negative percent change, the faster employment is declining, and the more unfavorable the employment prospects.


  • Average Annual Openings, 2006-2016

    Average annual openings are the sum of average annual new jobs and replacements. Average annual new jobs are the numeric change in employment over the projection period divided by the number of years in the projection period. Replacements are an estimate of the number of jobs that will arise from the need to replace workers who will die, retire, or otherwise permanently leave the occupation. Occupations with declining employment will have average annual openings equal to replacement needs. Average annual openings are presented because job openings arise from both newly created jobs and the need to replace workers who permanently leave their jobs.


  • How Often are the Projections Updated?

    National occupational projections are developed on a 2-year schedule and most States follow a similar schedule. The next National projections cycle will cover the 2008-2018 period and be available in November of 2009 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data from most States will not be available until late 2010. Employment projections are developed by each State and therefore are subject to work schedules and other related constraints of each State.

Disclaimer - Projection data accessible from this site are the responsibility of each agency that developed projections. The accuracy of projections for individual occupations is subject, of course, to error because of the many unknown factors that will affect the economy over the projection period. While occupational employment projections and related job outlook information can provide valuable inputs to the career decision-making process, they should not be the sole basis for a choice of career.

For questions or technical support email sbrock@utah.gov
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