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Sources of Projected Employment Data
National projections are developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
State projections are developed in the labor market information sections of each State Employment
Security Agency.
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Projection Period
The projection period is 2006-2016 for all States.
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Occupational Data
Each State Employment Security Agency in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses
the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey to gather occupational employment data. These
OES data are the basis for the occupational data used in the projections. The data collected
reflect the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Many occupations are not identified
separately in the SOC and are included in aggregate categories not shown on this site.
Employment may not be sufficient to warrant the development of occupational projections
in every occupation in each State, or the data may be confidential. Occupations for which
projections are not available are indicated with an (NA) for 'not available.'
For most States, 2006 and 2016 employment are rounded to the nearest 10. Employment
less than 50 is shown as (NA). Numerical employment change and average annual openings are
rounded to the nearest 10. Numbers with an absolute value of less than 10 are identified with
an (NA). If the numerical employment change is shown as (NA), the percent employment change
is also shown as (NA).
Data for New Jersey, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania use a format requested by those
States.
Louisiana lost a very high number of jobs within a very short period of time due to
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The net change in covered employment from August to December
2005 showed a loss of 144,850 workers in the region just affected by Hurricane Katrina.
These projections were prepared with two scenarios in mind: the need for immediate
reconstruction trades people for repair and recovery projected through 2009, followed by a
leveling off as reconstruction jobs end and the replacement economy picks up momentum
through 2014. In light of that projections for Louisiana are not strictly comparable to
those for other states.
Data for States currently not included will be added as soon as they become available.
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Numeric Employment Change, 2006-2016
Numeric employment change is the difference in the number of jobs between the base and
projected years. A positive number means employment is growing due to the creation of new
jobs. A negative number indicates employment is declining in the occupation.
Numeric change is important to consider along with percent change, because both types
of change are affected by the size of employment in an occupation. Occupations with a large
base of numeric employment may be creating large numbers of new jobs yet have a small
percent change. Occupations with a small base of numeric employment may be creating a small
number of new jobs yet have a large percent change.
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Percent Employment Change, 2006-2016
Percent employment change indicates how fast employment is expected to increase or
decrease during the projection period. The larger the positive percent change, the faster
employment is growing. A large positive percent change is generally an indicator of
favorable employment prospects. Likewise, the larger the negative percent change, the
faster employment is declining, and the more unfavorable the employment prospects.
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Average Annual Openings, 2006-2016
Average annual openings are the sum of average annual new jobs and replacements.
Average annual new jobs are the numeric change in employment over the projection period
divided by the number of years in the projection period. Replacements are an estimate of
the number of jobs that will arise from the need to replace workers who will die, retire,
or otherwise permanently leave the occupation. Occupations with declining employment will
have average annual openings equal to replacement needs. Average annual openings are
presented because job openings arise from both newly created jobs and the need to replace
workers who permanently leave their jobs.
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How Often are the Projections Updated?
National occupational projections are developed on a 2-year schedule and most States
follow a similar schedule. The next National projections cycle will cover the 2008-2018
period and be available in November of 2009 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data
from most States will not be available until late 2010. Employment projections are
developed by each State and therefore are subject to work schedules and other related
constraints of each State.